HGC Update July 20, 2017
Heading into Week 5, the Western Clash picture is still a mess. North America and Europe both have two spots still up for grabs, with a total of 7 teams vying for those 4 spots.
World Elo Ratings Note that teams with “-NEW” in their team name are new to HGC. Their ratings have stabilized quite a bit, so this will be the last week I include the tag.
The biggest stories in North America last week were the struggles of Roll20 and No Tomorrow. Roll20 had a tough weekend having to play both Tempo Storm and Team Freedom. They lost both series with a combined 3-6 map score and have likely ended their hopes of going to the Western Clash. No Tomorrow, meanwhile, became the first team to lose to newcomers Even in Death. This does not eliminate them but it makes the Roll20 game this week a must-win.
Gale Force Esports is now locked for the Western Clash due to their ranking and the tie breaker process. Despite being ahead in the standings and having the head-to-head edge, Team Freedom is not locked as they could still lose on tiebreakers to Tempo Storm and No Tomorrow.
Additionally, there is a 3.75% chance of Sudden Death between Roll 20 and Tempo Storm. This is the only possible sudden death match. Roll 20 can only advance via sudden death which is why their odds are zero since the table above only shows percentages of making it to the clash outright.
Paths to the Western Clash - North America
If you’ll forgive the self plagiarism, this is largely a copy paste of my reddit post from earlier this week.
I start with Roll20 because it is the easiest. There is exactly 1 path to the Western Clash. Here is what has to happen:
- Roll20 has to win 3-0 against No Tomorrow. A single map dropped means they are eliminated.
- Team Freedom has to win 3-0 over Tempo Storm. If Tempo Storm wins a single map Roll 20 is eliminated.
If this happens, we will have 3 way tie for third place with Team Freedom taking 1st and GFE taking 2nd, either at 6-1 or 5-2, it doesn't matter. This tie would be between No Tomorrow, Tempo Storm, and Roll 20. Head to head they are all 1-1 so this won't resolve it so we advance to map margin. In this case, No Tomorrow would be (0) at 15-15 and Tempo Storm and Roll 20 would both be +5 at 16-11. Then since they both would have 2 3-0s and 2 3-1s, it would go to a sudden death match between the two (best of 5). If Roll 20 wins this sudden death match they would go to the Western Clash.
- If No Tomorrow loses, they are out.
- If they win and either GFE wins OR Team Freedom wins (or both), they are in.
- If they win and Tempo Storm wins 3-2 over Freedom, they are in.
- If they win, GFE loses, and Tempo Storm wins 3-1 or 3-0, they are out.
- If they win and they lock.
- If Roll 20 wins over No Tomorrow, Team Freedom locks.
- If they lose 2-3 and No Tomorrow wins then their fate is decided by Gale Force. If Gale Force wins, Team Freedom is out. If Gale Force loses, Team Freedom is in.
- If they lose by 1-3 or worse, then they only clinch if No Tomorrow loses or Gale Force loses.
- Tempo can clinch clash only with a 3-1 or better victory. A 3-2 will not clinch on its own.
- Tempo clinches, regardless of their game, with a No Tomorrow loss to Roll 20.
If Tempo wins 3-2, the other conditions are at play:
- If Gale Force wins, they clinch
- As before, if No Tomorrow loses they clinch However, if No Tomorrow wins and Gale Force loses, Tempo Storm would be eliminated with a 3-2 victory.
Week 6 Projections - North America
- Roll 20 (71.57%) over No Tomorrow
- Gale Force (82.38%) over Superstars
- Even in Death (81.29%) over Naventic
- Team Freedom (53.21%) over Tempo Storm
Team Dignitas lost on Saturday, burying their hopes of the Western Clash. Luckily, Zealots was nearby with a shovel and dug them back up with a 3-1 upset over Team Liquid. Europe's Clash race is down to four teams, but despite the loss of Zealots, it has not gotten much easier to interpret. Luckily, this will all be resolved on Friday night, as Saturday's games do not matter for the Clash.
Paths to the Western Clash - Europe
This is summarzied correctly in Reddit's u/Kelgrimmer's reddit post. So a billion percent credit to him for saving me time.
The only thing wrong in the post is the double 3-2 situation. In this situation, the loser of the tiebreaker match will get 3rd regardless of any other tiebreakers.
Tricked Esports If Tricked Esports beats Dignitas, they are in the clash.
If they lose, they can still make it as a result of map score. I direct you to Kelgrimmer's post for the details.
Team Expert Team Expert also advances to the Clash with a win. If they lose, they need Dignitas to beat Tricked to get to the Clash. It would then go to map score, and possible a sudden death matchup. Again, Kelgrimmer's post linked above is a godsend, and Kelgrimmer is that god.
Team Dignitas For Dignitas to go to the clash:
- They must beat Tricked Esports
- They need Expert to beat Team Liquid
The only other path involves Liquid getting a 3-0 after Dignitas gets a 3-0. In this case, there is a three way sudden death match between Tricked, Expert, and Dignitas to decide who goes to the clash.
Team Liquid Team Liquid goes to the clash if:
- Liquid beats Expert
- Tricked beats Dignitas
If they lose, they are eliminated.
If they win and Dignitas wins, they can also go to clash depending on map score. Guess whose post to read for those details? That's right. Kelgrimmer's.
Week 6 Projections - Europe
- Team Dignitas (68.89%) over Tricked Esports
- Team Expert (63.18%) over Team Liquid
- Zealots (58.84%) over The Good Guys
- Fnatic (99.84%) over Playing Ducks
Nothing really surprising in Korea last week. The MVP Black/Tempest matchup didn't live up to the billing as MVP Black dominated in a 3-0. Mighty kept themselves alive with a win over Team BlossoM, leading the clash race to this weekend. For all reasonable cases, the race comes down to Mighty vs. L5.
Note that I assuming the same rules are in place in Korea. However, last season, they used game margin as a higher precedent than game margin. I am not sure what their rules are as I don't read Korean. That said, these scenarios should still hold regardless.
Paths to the Eastern Clash - Korea
Rather than by team, it's easier to look at individual games here.
L5 vs. Mighty
If L5 wins, both L5 and Tempest go to the Eastern Clash.
If L5 loses, it comes down to margin of victory in the Tempest vs. Rrr Series. Since this series is likely a 3-0 for Tempest, this would advance Tempest and Mighty, with L5 staying home from the clash.
Basically, if Mighty wins 3-2, they need Tempest to win 3-0. If Mighty wins 3-1, they need Tempest to win 3-1 or 3-0. If Mighty wins 3-0, they clinch the clash, and then if Tempest wins by 3-1 or worse, L5 goes to the clash. Otherwise, it will be Tempest taking the third seat sending L5 home.
Week 6 Projections - Korea
- L5 (75.67%) over Mighty
- Tempest (88.68%) over Rrr
- MVP Black (99.81%) over Raven
- MVP Miracle (71.24%) over Team BlossoM
At this point, it would be an honest miracle if anyone besides CE, E-Star, and SPT went to the Eastern Clash (only 2 simulations in 100K had a different result, both with RPG taking SPT's place). Meanwhile, Wukong Gaming will be relegated with certainty at this point. The only question is who is the second relegated team. For now, this is a race between Kudos Top, Start Over Again, and Hots Lady, who are all tied at 10 points in the standings. The Kudos Top vs. Start Over Again match on Monday will go a long way to determining this.
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