DBSmiley here coming to you for the first time from gfe.gg. I’m happy to partner up with Gale Force eSports to give my HGC updates and posts a more permanent venue. If you are unfamiliar with my work, I’m basically a mediocre HoTS player with slightly better than mediocre programming and data scraping skills. I do stats analysis for HGC.
This post will focus on HGC Week 6 for every region but China, who just finished Week 3.
World Elo Ratings
I am working on getting a methodology post up on gfe.gg but in the meantime, see my reddit preview of South Korea for methodology. Some updates from before, however, regional games are now k=30 (down from 40), Clash event and semi-global events are k=45 (down from 50), and Blizzcon and Brawl events are now k=55 (down from k=60). These adjustments were made to reduce the impact of single “bad matches” at regional events, while maintaining the emphasis of international events in setting a region’s average accurately. The methodology will be more fleshed out in a later post.
The following teams saw the largest INCREASE in their ratings during Week 6 (Week 3 for HGC China):
Start Over Again (China) - Current Elo: 1334, +74 - Start Over Again only had one direction to go, Up. Start Over Again didn’t need much to get there. A 3-2 win over one of China’s new teams, Keep it Simple, was enough to give them a substantial boost. They are still the lowest rated team in China, and are still likely to be relegated, but this is the first step to turning that around.
Synergy (Europe) - Current Elo: 1356, +55 - Synergy found themselves entering Week 6 at the bottom of HGC Europe following a lose to beGenius in the Kings of the Storm event. However, winning that series 3-1 pushed them up. They still have a long way to go to get out of the Crucible, but they are a little bit closer to safe.
- Tempo Storm (North America) - Current Elo: 1560, +46 - Tempo Storm had a huge 6-0 weekend, including a dominant series against Team 8. This was the start Tempo Storm needed entering the second leg of HGC North America, and moved them into the Top 10 in the Global Rankings.
The following teams saw the largest DECREASE in their ratings during Week 6 (Week 3 for HGC China):
Team 8 (North America) - Current Elo: 1452, -90 - Team 8 had the toughest schedule in NA this week by a country mile, matching up against the other top 2 teams in NA in Tempo Storm and Gale Force. While losing both those sets isn’t too bad, losing both sets 0-3 is what cost them in the ratings this much. Team 8 likely won’t face any team as good as Tempo and GFE the rest of the season, but they will need to look to rebound against B-Step this weekend.
B Step (North America) - Current Elo: 1458, -58 - Speaking of B-Step, they found themselves on the receiving end of a 0-3 beatdown by Team Naventic. B-Step did not play as well as they’ve shown they are able by a long shot. B-Step had an outside shot at international play entering this leg of the season, but they will have to improve substantially to even sniff globals in the Stepladder playoff at this rate.
- Team Liquid (Europe) - Current Elo: 1624, -54 - You may find it strange that a team that won both matches saw an Elo drop. But my model calculates per game. This is because a team of Team Liquid’s previous rating SHOULD 3-0 Tricked Esports and Playing Ducks. The model found going to Game 5 against such lower rated competition necessitated a drop. Given their play, I agree with this drop. It’s still good for 7th place Globally
HGC North America Predictions
After week 6, North America is a 2 horse race. Both Gale Force eSports and Tempo Storm control their own destiny. Win out, and you get the number 1 seed. Team 8 will have to sit back and hope for chaos. Here are the first place odds after Week 6:
Sudden Death Chance - 0.098%
While B-Step, Superstars, and Team Freedom are mathematically alive, their odds are extremely small and require an advanced math degree to work out. The most probable situation is the winner of Tempo Storm vs. Gale Force in Week 9 will take the number 1 slot. Team 8 will need Tempo Storm to lose twice and Gale Force once, and then need a lot of 3-0s. This is incredibly improbable according to my modelling, as well as my common sense, so Team 8 will need to play for the Stepladder Playoff at this point.
The Crucible picture also has some clear “favorites” at the moment:
Sudden Death Chance - 1.777 %
Technically, only Tempo Storm is safe from the Crucible, though Team 8 and GFE would require miracle scale insanity to even sniff the Crucible this season. Despite this, North America has the most interesting Crucible Race of any major League, with 3 teams all above 50%, vying to get out of the bottom 2 spots.
Despite their loss to No Tomorrow, Naventic still hangs above Freedom and No Tomorrow as a result of their Elo gains. That said, Naventic will have to prove their place this weekend against a hungry Team Freedom. This game has massive Crucible implications.
HGC Europe Predictions
The race for 1st place is still a 3 horse in Europe, with Team Dignitas slowly seeing their percentage climb. However, they still need to beat both Team Liquid and Fnatic, AND have Team Liquid lose another game, AND find more 3-0s than their counterparts. At least on that last element they are now tied with Team Liquid with 4, and ahead of Fnatic who has 3.
Because Team Liquid is at 9-0, no team with less than 9 wins can win HGC Europe. Further, even if Team Expert won out and get to 9-5, they would still lose on tiebreakers to the big 3. As such, this is limited to only the top 3 teams. However, Team Liquid has looked vulnerable this last week.
Europe’s Crucible race is much more clear than the first place race.
beGenius will literally need a miracle to not go the Crucible at this point. In 100,000 Simulations, beGenius went to the Crucible in 99,998 of them. Even beating Tricked eSports and Playing Ducks, the two teams they are most likely to beat going forward, wouldn’t be enough to get them out of the bottom 2. Synergy, despite their win, still needs help. They will get a chance against Tricked eSports to move off the bottom 2 slots, but Tricked is heavily favored in that game.
HGC South Korea
Shock of all shocks, MVP Black and L5 are the highly favored teams in South Korea. They continue to remain the top 2 teams in the world, and I do not expect that to change soon.
Despite having a higher Elo, MVP Black is still behind L-5. This is a combination of L-5 already holding the first half victory 1-3, as well as L-5 having more 3-0 victories giving them an edge in the tie-breaker. From there, even Tempest would need a miracle. For all intents and purposes, assume this is a two horse race. The second place of MVP Black and Tempest will likely only need to win one playoff match to go to globals. So unless Tempest or someone else pulls off a big upset, it’s safe to assume L5 and MVP Black will once against represent Korea at globals this summer.
Much like Europe, the bottom 2 in Korea are fairly locked in. It’s going to be very very difficult for Team BlossoM to get out of the Crucible, and virtually impossible for Raven, who has already lost to GG 0-3.
I will not be simulating HGC China until after Week 4 (next week). Having effectively 3 new teams throws the rankings off significantly, and they need time to stabilize. However, it is worth mentioning that E-Star is off to a huge start, I would expect either Super Perfect Team or ce to take the second Chinese slot (with an outside shot for X-Team), and Start Over Again and Keep it Simple seem the most likely to face relegation.
I am reviving my weekly HGC-NA Streamcast 323 Weekly alongside LiquidGG. It will kick off at 7:00PM EDT on Thursday, April 20, at twitch.tv/dbsmiley.