World Elo Ratings
I am working on getting a methodology post up on gfe.gg but in the meantime, see my Reddit preview of South Korea for methodology. Some updates from before, however, regional games are now k=30 (down from 40), Clash event and semi-global events are k=45, and Blizzcon and Brawl events are now k=55. These adjustments were made to reduce the impact of single “bad matches” at regional events, while maintaining the emphasis of international events in setting a region’s average accurately. The methodology will be more fleshed out in a later post.
The following teams saw the largest INCREASE in their ratings during Week 8 (Week 5 for HGC China):
ce (China) - Current Elo: 1598, +55 - ce found a 3-0 against E-Star gaming and now actually lead the way with 1st place in the Chinese standings. This team was hanging around China for a while, and looked like one of the teams that could make moves this season. They were set back by a disappointing 2-3 loss to Super Perfect Team, but winning against the reigning Chinese champions is huge.
beGenius (Europe) - Current Elo: 1344, +43 - Another case of having nowhere to go but up, beGenius is already destined for the Crucible with no escape. However, they took Playing Ducks on the way out. While this victory may seem hollow to an outside observer, simply watch the interview afterwards to see how much this mean to beGenius. They still have two matches before playing for their paychecks in the Crucible.
- B Step (North America) - Current Elo: 1530, +41 - B Step only had one game this last weekend, but made the most of it with a 3-0 win over No Tomorrow. B Step is still trying to move up their step ladder playoff seeding, currently at 4th place. They face a very difficult schedule to finish the season with Gale Force, Tempo Storm, and Superstars all on the docket.
The following teams saw the largest DECREASE in their ratings during Week 7 (Week 4 for HGC China):
No Tomorrow (North America) - Current Elo: 1361, -70 - No Tomorrow had a chance this weekend to get away from the Crucible after being the #2 Riser last week. Instead, they went 1-6 against mid-tier North American teams B-Step and Superstars. No Tomorrow is likely destined for the Crucible, but will have one more chance to get a critical victory against Team Freedom this weekend.
E-Star (China) - Current Elo: 1608, -55 - Elo is a zero sum game, and with ce rising 55 points, E-Star falls the same amount. E-Star is still 7th in the world, but will now have to wait for ce to falter or hope Super Perfect team wins out to create a three way tie. Even then, ce currently has the edge.
- Tricked eSports (Europe) - Current Elo: 1488, -42 - Last week’s #3 riser is this week’s 3rd largest faller after losing to Playing Ducks. Tricked plays beGenius next week, who just beat Playing Ducks. This is a chance for Tricked to stabilize their rating; after last week they ended up not far from where they started the season.
HGC North America
First Place Odds
This race almost got very interesting, as Naventic took Tempo Storm to a game 5. An upset would have made next week’s Tempo Storm vs. Gale Force match a championship game. Instead, Gale Force finds their chances to win HGC at the slimmest of margins.
The race for 1st place has gotten really simple. If Tempo Storm wins against EITHER Gale Force or B-Step, they will lock the 1st place bid for HGC. Additionally, if Gale Force loses against any of Tempo Storm, B-Step, or Team Freedom, Tempo Storm will lock the first place bid for HGC. There is now only 1 path for Gale Force eSports to get the 1st place bid. 4 games have to go a specific way for this to happen:
- Gale Force beats B-Step
- Gale Force beats Tempo Storm
- Gale Force beats Team Freedom
- Tempo Storm loses to B-Step
If ANY of those things DON’T happen, Tempo Storm will represent NA, and Gale Force will go the playoff.
This weekend saw a whopping three teams go into the Safe category, as the number of games shrinks. Team 8 (who, granted, was effectively safe before), B-Step, and Superstars are now safely locked into phase 2 of HGC, regardless what else happens. Additionally, it saw Naventic’s fate sealed into the Crucible.
It now comes down to Team Freedom and No Tomorrow. Now, if No Tomorrow can beat Team Freedom next week, they would hold the tiebreaker on head-to-head, being 2-0 against them. From there, they would need only to match Team Freedom’s wins.
The rest of the way out, Team Freedom has to play Team 8, No Tomorrow, and Gale Force eSports. No Tomorrow plays just Team Freedom and Team 8. If Team Freedom can find two wins, they will be safe. If Team Freedom loses out, including a loss to No Tomorrow, Team Freedom will go the Crucible. If Team Freedom beats No Tomorrow, but loses the other two, we go to tie breakers. Team Freedom has one 3-0 victory and two 3-1 victories. No Tomorrow has 0 3-0 victories and two 3-1 victories. So this currently favors Team Freedom.
Step Ladder Playoff
As last week, I will focus on 2nd through 4th place. There is no meaningful difference between 5th and 6th place, as both will find themselves on the bottom rung of the step ladder playoff.
2nd Place - The second place team is most likely to be Gale Force eSports. If GFE sneaks into first place, Tempo Storm will be second place. Team 8 has a chance to get second, but it most likely involves either a) getting two more wins in their last three than Gale Force (GFE goes 1-2, and Team 8 goes 3-0, or GFE goes 0-3 and Team 8 goes 2-1 or better). The other is to win 1 more game than GFE, but also finding two more 3-0s than GFE down the stretch, while GFE gets 3-2 in their win(s). I have about a 91% chance for Gale Force to finish second (or better), about an 8% chance of Team 8, with about a 1% chance of Sudden Death. B-Step is mathematically alive, but would have to win out, have GFE lose out, and have Team 8 win no more than 1. The odds of this are significantly less than 1%.
3rd Place - Almost certainly Team 8. If Team 8 gets second place, this is almost certainly Gale Force eSports. B-Step can crash the third place party similar to how they would crash 2nd place, but the odds of this are only about 2.2% odds.
4th Place - B-Step has about 85% odds of taking 4th place or better. Superstars could play spoiler (about 14%), but would need to beat B-Step next week, beat Naventic in week 10, and have B-Step lose to both Gale Force and Tempo Storm. If Superstars still wins against B-Step, but B-Step beats either opponent, Superstars could still win on tie breakers if they win 2 3-0s and B-Step doesn’t.
Looking ahead - Week 9:
- Gale Force eSports vs. B-Step - Elo projects Gale Force eSports win (75.7%)
- Team Freedom vs. Team 8 - Elo projects Team 8 win (58.2%)
- No Tomorrow vs. Team Freedom - Elo projects Team Freedom win (70.1%)
- Team Naventic vs. Team 8 - Elo projects Team 8 win (71.8%)
- Gale Force eSports vs. Tempo Storm - Elo projects Gale Force eSports win (55.5%)
- Superstars vs. B-Step - Elo projects B-Step wins (70.8%)
First Place Odds
Team Liquid’s chances took a big shot with the double 2-3 losses to the other Big Three members. Fnatic is now in the driver’s seat. Win out, and Fnatic will take first place. Team Dignitas will need to beat Fnatic, but even then, it would be a three way head-to-head tie for first place, taking it to most 3-0 victories. This currently favors Dignitas and Team Liquid, who have 5 3-0s each to Fnatic’s 4. Liquid has 2 matches left, Team Expert and beGenius. Fnatic and Dig of course play each other next week, with Fnatic playing Tricked eSports and Synergy. Dignitas plays Tricked eSports in week 10. If Dig can beat Fnatic next week, it gets really weird and pedantic. I don’t want to stay up all night enumerating possibilities around 3-0s and 3-1s. But it gets hard to predict if that happens.
Thanks to the Playing Ducks loss, there is still the narrowest of openings for Synergy to escape the Crucible. They would need a pretty massive upset over Team Expert or Fnatic + the win over Playing Ducks, with Playing Ducks losing to Team Expert, they would have equal win totals. From there, Synergy would need to take the 3-0 victories. This is an incredibly tall order, as Elo suggests the upset chance for either game for Synergy is nearly zero. Tricked isn’t completely safe, but they are basically safe by way of having 3-0 victories and head-to-head advantages.
Step Ladder Playoff
2nd Place and 3rd Place - it should be no surprise that the race for 2nd is just as hard to read as the race for 1st place. As such, there’s no easy way to list situations deciding 2nd place until 1st place is also clear. What is certain is that Europe’s Big Three will have a 1,2,3 finish. However, any order is possible. If Fnatic wins next week, it will likely be 1. Fnatic, 2. Team Liquid, and 3. Team Dignitas. If Team Dignitas wins, then...I don’t know. It just gets weird.
4th Place - Team Expert is NEARLY a lock for 4th place. They play Synergy, Playing Ducks, and Team Liquid. If they win 2 of 3, they lock up the position. If they win 1 of 3, they still almost certainly lock up the position. Playing Ducks and Tricked eSports need Team Expert to lose out, including a game to Synergy. The odds of that are very very small.
Looking ahead - Week 9:
- Fnatic vs. Tricked eSports - Elo projects Fnatic win (94.3%)
- Synergy vs. Team Expert - Elo projects Team Expert win (91.6%)
- Playing Ducks vs. Synergy- Elo projects Playing Ducks win (68.7%)
- Team Liquid vs. Team Expert - Elo projects Team Liquid win (68.6%)
- Fnatic vs. Team Dignitas - Elo projects Fnatic win (53.5%)
- beGenius vs. Tricked eSports - Elo projects Tricked eSports wins (83.2%)
First Place Odds
There remains about a 4.6 % chance for sudden death. Not a lot of movement last week. Both teams played only one game and both games featured Crucible-bound team. Both were 3-0 victories so we didn’t learn much about either team. Both teams switch dance partners next Friday with MVP Black playing Raven and L-5 playing Team BlossoM. This, of course, is just the appetizer for the main course on next Sunday. If I may channel local radio ads for monster trucks.
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY! MVP BLACK vs. L-5! THE TITLE OF BEST TEAM IN THE WORLD IS ON THE LINE! MVP BLACK vs. L-5! YOU’LL PAY FOR THE WHOLE SEAT BUT YOU’LL ONLY NEED THE EDGE, ON SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY!
Set your alarm early next Sunday, wake up, and watch. These are, by far, the two best teams in the world right now. There is no way to hype up the series enough. Note that MVP Black beating L-5 is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to getting 1st place. They would still need to beat L-5 in 3-0 victories. L-5 has 8 to MVP Black’s 7. This means MVP Black needs to either 3-0 L-5, or have Team BlossoM or MVP Miracle take a map off L-5 while MVP Black 3-0s GG and Raven.
Welp, Korea’s Crucible race is over, with the “winners” being Raven and Team BlossoM. It is now a mathematical lock.
Step Ladder Playoff
We now know for certain 4 of the 5 teams in the step ladder playoff. With Raven and Team BlossoM going to the Crucible, the only variable is who gets the first place bye between L-5 and MVP Black.
2nd Place - We already knew that whoever doesn’t finish first between MVP Black and L-5 will finish second. As such, the loser of MVP Black and L-5 will have the inside track with the top seed in the step ladder playoff, and will likely only need to fight off an upset bid from Tempest
3rd Place - While not mathematically certain as yet, Tempest will almost surely take the 3rd place position. Mighty is mathematically alive, but only just. Simulations give them a less than a half of 1% chance of getting up to third.
4th Place - This is where the interesting race is, at this point. First, if Mighty somehow slipped into 3rd place, this spot would be Tempest (very very unlikely). However, assuming Tempest finishes 3rd, it comes down to Mighty and MVP Miracle, with GG having a VERY outside shot. Mighty would have to lose twice to lose the position, including their game to MVP Miracle next Saturday. GG, having lose to Mighty twice now, would need to see Mighty lose all three remaining games, including Team BlossoM, and they would still need help from there. So they are likely stuck in 5th place at best.
Looking ahead - Week 9:
- L-5 vs. Team BlossoM - Elo projects L-5 win (99.5%)
- Raven vs. MVP Black - Elo projects MVP Black win (99.98%)
- MVP Miracle vs. Mighty - Elo projects MVP Miracle win (57.0%)
- GG vs. Tempest - Elo projects Tempest win (91.2%)
- Tempest vs. Mighty - Elo projects Tempest win (86.3%)
- MVP Black vs. L-5 - Elo projects MVP Black wins (60.9%)
A huge upset this week, as ce blanks E-Star in 3 games. The ramifications for the top of HGC China are substantial. The first place race in China is as interesting as Europe could be if Dignitas beats Fnatic this week.
First Place Odds
There is an INSANE 9.7% Chance of sudden death for first place. Keep in mind, however, because this is a single round robin, this would involve all of the top 3 teams. As such, I have no clue how Blizzard resolves it. A 2-team sudden death is easy. 3-team? How do you structure that?
Serious question: I’ve read the rulebook and I don’t know. Because we have a triangular tie at the top (ce beat E Star, beat SPT, beat ce), we have to start looking at win counts:
Here ce has the advantage with the most 3-0 victories. Further, ce should be capable of going 3-0 both their remaining opponents, Keep it Simple and Hots Lady. However, if they drop a map in there, it opens the door for E-Star and SPT to close the gap if they can win two 3-0s. E Star should likely 3-0 both their opponents. Super Perfect Team is going to need both teams above them to have a 5 game series, or have E-Star lose again, to have a shot. But SPT also has X-Team, who is no slouch, ahead of them.
Keep it Simple will head to the Crucible at this point. Start Over Again is mathematically alive, but they would have to beat both Super Perfect Team and E Star, and even then would still need some help (specifically, the loser of RPG/Hots Lady would have to win their other game, and Start Over Again would have to win with 3-0s). In short, it’s going to be Start Over Again.
Step Ladder Playoff
2nd Place - This will likely be E-Star or ce, whoever doesn’t take first place. Super Perfect Team could take this slot if they win 3-0s and the other teams don’t. But only about 28.5% odds of getting up here. X-Team is mathematically alive, but very very improbable (less than 1%).
3rd Place - This is probably Super Perfect Team, but X-Team could claim this slot by beating SPT in the last game of week 7 for HGC China. SPT has about 80.1% odds, with X-Team having 19.0%. About a 1% chance for sudden death.
4th Place - This is most likely X-Team, but RPG could claim this spot by beating X-Team next week. X-Team finishes 4th or better about 70.6% of the time, where RPG is about 22.5%.
Looking ahead - Week 6:
- Star Over Again vs. Super Perfect Team - Elo projects Super Perfect Team win (96.4%)
- X-Team vs. RPG - Elo projects X-Team win (61.0%)
- E-Star vs. Keep it Simple - Elo projects E-Star win (96.6%)
- ce vs. Hots Lady - Elo projects ce win (82.6%)
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